The revenge of range

Posted by Marcus Bateman 26/07/10

An interesting hand came up a while ago that I had been talking to Matthew Pitt about and he suggested I share it as a good example of ranging and equity in action so here you go.

I was playing in a small club in London where I had accompanied a friend new to poker to a £65 small scale multi-table tournament (around 45 runners). We were currently playing level three in a structure where the blinds double every level, and most of the table were around 60-100 big blinds deep. I had been very active, and had taken down most pots uncontested with pre and post flop aggression against a largely passive table, although I had lost one big pot with ace queen against a shortish stacks ace three all in pre flop where they hit a three.

I raise 3x the big blind with 8c9c from UTG+1 eight handed and with a stack of forty five big blinds. An old woman who has been playing very tight minimum re-raises me (she covers me). I flat called and the flop came out 6c7s8h. I check and she bets double the pot (25 big blinds into 12.5). I have 39 big blinds left - effectively leaving me the choice of either going all in or folding - what is the correct move in this rather odd spot?

The first and most important consideration in this equation is her range. Most old women playing very tight don't three bet much at all, and at the time I felt she was only really doing this with JJ+ and AQs+ at the very worst, and most likely AKo+ and KK+. Against both her tightest and loosest range, a brief look at PokerStove tells me I have very solid equity in this spot - 65%, and more than enough to get it in.

As any odds calculator tells us, pairs and combo draws are very powerful hands against people who are most likely holding over pairs/cards, and I quickly check raised all in. She thought for a while and called me with probably the last hand I ever expected to see her turn over - a set of sixes (so much for being a nit old lady). Even against a set here I still have reasonable equity (25%), but she held and I bust out, much to the pleasure of my friend as he collected his winning last longer bet.

Even if we assume she is three betting very light and open up her range to 66+ and AJ+ in this spot, I still end up with an equity of 61% on this flop. Although she does have a set occasionally, on the face of it this spot looks like a very trivial all in. The only possible way I could have been saved was in considering her double the pot continuation bet - a subject I want to look at in more detail in another piece.